Here’s some updated bracketology, and three CAA teams are dancing. I’m not a huge RPI guy since it can be manipulated (as Missouri Valley proved a few years ago), but it does serve a purpose. Looking back over the past three years, exactly six teams with an RPI of 40 or better didn’t make the Tournament. With the expanded field this year, I’m going to assume if your RPI is 40 or better, there’s a 95% chance you are in the field.
1. Georgetown (16-5, 5-4, RPI: 5) — Have won four in a row. Impressive win at Villanova on Saturday. Georgetown is back looking at a 3-5 seed.
2. ODU (17-5, 8-3, RPI: 31) — The first of three impressive CAA teams. They handled their business this week. With wins over Clemson, Xavier, Dayton and Richmond, an 8-3 conference record and an RPI of 31, they’re currently dancing. Huge game Saturday at Mason.
3. Richmond (16-6, 5-2, RPI: 61) — After beating Dayton on the road, the game against Xavier set up to be huge. Unfortunately, the most exciting part of the game was the baby race at halftime (see above). Hanging on to that neutral court win against Purdue. It’s too close to call right now.
4. George Mason (17-5, 9-2, RPI: 33) — Like ODU, got three wins this week. With their RPI, they’re in good shape right now. A win against ODU will help keep that RPI under 40.
5. VA Tech (14-6, 4-3, RPI: 68) — Right now they’re probably in the Tournament, but I’m not sure I trust that they can go on the road this week and get two wins. If they’re to stay in the Dance, they need to beat NC State and BC this week.
6. VCU (18-5, 10-1, RPI: 51) — That’s nine in a row. Other than the loss to Georgia St., they have a very clean resume. It would be hard to deny their overall record at this point. Still have ODU and Mason later in February to boost their resume.
7. Maryland (14-7, 4-3, RPI: 70) — MD got two ACC road wins. Slowly starting to get the wins they need. They play five of seven at home starting with Duke Wednesday night. A win against Duke would be huge, because right now they’re outside looking in.
8. JMU (17-6, 7-4, RPI: 66) — They do have VCU (twice), ODU and Mason on the schedule, so if they win out it would be interesting going into the CAA Tournament.
9. Hampton (15-5, 6-2, RPI: 125) — Still look like the favorite to win their conference.
10. American (15-7, 5-2, RPI: 122) — Can’t lose to Navy, not this year.
11. Virginia (11-10, 2-5, RPI: 153) — Lost to Wake. Enough said.