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Skins’ Playoff Odds And Scenarios Are Way Too Promising

You’ve done it, Redskins. You’ve officially got our hopes up. This is no longer “oh, wouldn’t it be cute if they made the playoffs?” We’ve reached the point where missing the playoffs would be a massive disappointment. We’ve reached the point were we expect this team to be playing in January. This is a very dangerous place to be, friends. We’re all doomed.

To the odds!

Football Outsiders: 80.6% (Division title: 68.6%; Wild Card berth: 12%)
Playoff Status: 68% (Division title: 53%; Wild Card berth: 15%)

And the scenarios:

— Win-out and they win the division. This one is nice and clean.

— Lose one, and they’re still in with at least one loss from the Giants, Vikings and Bears. Which means they clinch a spot THIS SUNDAY if they win and those other three lose.

— Lose their last two games, they will need a god damn miracle.

— With the Bears unlikely to lose to Arizona or Detroit, it’s basically impossible to find a scenario in which the Skins’ playoff hopes won’t be on the line against Dallas. Which is already making me wanna vomit.

Former Managing Editor at UPROXX; former Senior Editor at @SBNation; former ska-zine editor, fan of bad sports teams and good beer.

17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. will

    December 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

    Feels like the Nationals playoff run, donnit?

  2. Chris Mottram

    December 18, 2012 at 12:45 PM

    If they lose to Dallas, it’ll feel an awful lot like the Nats playoff run.

  3. bpmarkowitz

    December 18, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    It feels weird to have confidence in the Skins, but I do. Does not make these last two weeks and less agonizing.

    From what I can tell, there is a scenario where if the Dallas game gets flexed Dallas could be eliminated from playoff contention before the game, but that scenario involves them losing to NO this weekend.

  4. will

    December 18, 2012 at 12:47 PM

    No, that would require the Redskins to make it into the playoffs then be up by 10 in the first game and lose by 14 with the opponent scoring two touchdowns in the last three minutes. Losing to Dallas would feel more like the Rangers playoff run.

  5. bpmarkowitz

    December 18, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    Part of me longs for the salad days of a month ago when I was going to be really happy with 8-8.

  6. Adam

    December 18, 2012 at 12:51 PM

    I might be missing something, but I think that they clinch the division this week with a win and losses by Dallas and the Giants. If that happens, then even if they lose to the Cowboys and the Giants win their last game, all three teams would be 9-7 and 2-2 in common games, but the Skins would have a better division record than the Giants and a better conference record than the Cowboys.

  7. RD

    December 18, 2012 at 1:31 PM

    Nothing is ever easy. I fully expect to blow it against the Eagles and we’ll see what happens against the Pokes.

  8. JRock

    December 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

    Gents,

    The percentages don’t add like that – we have a 68.6% chance of making the playoffs, not 80.6%.

  9. bpmarkowitz

    December 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

    @Adam

    If we win this weekend and Dallas & NY lose, we would be 9-6 (4-1 in div), Dallas would be 8-7 (3-2 in div), NY would be 8-7 (2-3 in div).

    Next week, if we lost to Dallas, Skins would be 9-7 (4-2 in div), Dallas would be 9-7 (4-2 in div). So common games in Division – TIE!

    So that brings us to “commons games”

    Common Games

    Bucs (Skins won, Dal won)
    Ravens (Skins won, Dal lost)
    Falcons (Skins lost, Dal lost)
    Browns (Skins won, Dal won)
    Bengals (Skins lost, Dal won)
    Steelers (Skins lost, Dal won)
    Saints (Skins won, Dal lost)

    So, common opponents: 4-3, 4-3 – TIE

    That takes us to the next…Conference Games

    Bucs (Skins won, Dal won)
    Falcons (Skins lost, Dal lost)
    Saints (Skins won, Dal lost)

    Skins 2-1, Dal 1-2 thus Skins win Tiebreaker.

    It would appear you are right, thought I have not seen this scenario anywhere else and the playoff machine still says Dallas would win Div.

    What am I missing?

  10. beck of a good time

    December 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

    Adam,

    The problem is, if Dallas and Washington finish tied (alone), Dallas wins the tiebreaker. So if this weekend = Skins W, Dall, NYG L and next weekend = Dall W, Skins, NYG L you have Skins 9-7, Dallas 9-7, NYG 8-8. Dallas is your champ.
    Now excuse me while I throw up at the thought.

  11. bpmarkowitz

    December 18, 2012 at 1:51 PM

    Wait, I missed the panthers.

    We lost, Dal won. that would give them the lead in common opponents.

  12. bpmarkowitz

    December 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

    beck of good time is correct.

    we must beat dallas.

  13. Chris Mottram

    December 18, 2012 at 2:31 PM

    Correct, Dallas owns the tiebreaker over the Skins if they finished tied atop the East because they have the better record against common opponents. Which is also why the Skins do not clinch the division if they win this Sunday and NYG and DAL lose.

  14. Adam

    December 18, 2012 at 2:55 PM

    I see. I always thought conference record was the next tie-breaker after division record. Live and learn.

  15. Shameless

    December 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM

    I swear if I have to take a winter course, and the skins make the playoffs, and an exam happens to be during a skins playoff game, I will be soooooo heated. I may cry also.

  16. Max Wass

    December 19, 2012 at 2:14 AM

    It should also be noted that beating the Eagles and losing to the Cowboys presents fewer options for making the playoffs than losing to the Eagles and beating the Cowboys.

    Here’s why: To make the playoffs with a loss vs. the Eagles and win vs. the Cowboys, the Skins would require at least one loss in the last two weeks by the Giants OR two of the following three things:
    -Bears lose at least once
    -Vikings lose at least once
    -Seahawks lose twice

    A loss by the Giants means the Skins would win the division despite losing the the Eagles. Otherwise, they need two of those other three things to happen to get a wild card.

    HOWEVER, a win vs. the Eagles and loss vs. the Cowboys would require at least one loss in the last two weeks by the Giants AND two of the three things I listed above to happen as well.

    So losing to the Cowboys is far more harmful than losing to the Eagles. A win vs. Philly & loss vs. Dallas means the Redskins need three other teams to falter, whereas a loss to Philly & win against Dallas means they only need one or two teams to fail.

  17. Wcked Pixels

    December 19, 2012 at 6:33 AM

    I was told there would be no math.

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