RGIII’s Stats Aren’t Bad, At Least

If you were to ask someone, “Hey, how much worse is RGIII than Russell Wilson and Luck and Kaepernick this season?,” I bet he or she would say something like, “Shoot, those guys left him in the dust a long time ago.” But, if you take team records out of it, here’s what their 2013 seasons look like:

Wilson is clearly out in front, but RGIII, Luck and Kaep are more or less the same — in that middle-third of quarterbacks with 80-plus ratings and the stats to go with it. Advanced stats may suggest differently, and I haven’t watched enough Indy or SF games to suggest otherwise, but it seems to me those three are in roughly the same boat, looking up at Wilson.

Of course, the biggest difference is that RGIII is on a very bad 3-10 team, while the other three helm teams with a combined record of 28-10. Seattle and San Francisco are also distinguished from Washington in that they have very good defenses. Indianapolis, for its part, does not feature the worst special teams unit ever.

All of which is to say, maybe it’s not as bad as we think it is for RGIII right now. He basically put up a sophomore season in line with his heralded peers, one in which he started every game and made it through injury-free. After last year’s trauma, that’s no small feat.

Also, just for fun, let’s compare RGIII’s 2013 to three other recent QB seasons, each of which is relevant in some way:

The Cam comparison is often made and is a hopeful one, given how he and the Panthers have rebounded in 2013. The Campbell one is just me stirring up old stuff, dispiriting though it may be. And, ah yes, Donovan McNabb. At least Griffin’s got him beat.

9 thoughts on “RGIII’s Stats Aren’t Bad, At Least”

  1. Could you break those stats down to see what his numbers were like in quarters 1-3 vs the others? I’ve got a feeling his numbers were inflated during garbage time.

  2. Stats are fine and dandy, but they are inflated by the amount of screen passes he throws. He just doesn’t pass the eye test this year. Just too many overthrows, inaccurate passes and staring down receivers. He has definitely won more fantasy games this year than football games.

  3. I have to agree with Jack, he just doesn’t pass the eye test. I’m no expert, but some folks who’ve played the game have been fairly critical of RGIII’s performance this year. In particular, that INT he threw on Sunday – supposedly that’s the most basic of reads and throws and he simply blew it.

    What a difference 12 months makes.

  4. to piggy back what jack davis said. how many of his passes have been thrown over 15 yards? i would say that 79% of all his passes are under 15 yards and 60% of those are under 10 yards. now, that is not all his fault as that is what little shenanigan calls, but does he favor those calls because that is all robert can consistently complete?

  5. As to the eye test, Collinsworth’s observation last Sunday was an apt one for me: RG3 doesn’t throw on the run very well. If his legs are going to be useful going forward, it won’t be as a runner, but as a scrambler to buy time to make throws. Wilson has it. Roethlisberger has it. Fuck, even Romo has it. I don’t see RG3 buying himself time to throw. He either takes the sack, or takes off running.

  6. He’s got a long way to go. Luck and Wilson are clearly better QBs right now with regards to reads and accuracy.

    As stated in comment #1, these stats don’t tell the story.

  7. ThisGuy, Collinsworth was on point w/ that one.

    Illformula, I agree these stats don’t tell the whole story, but I was surprised how close Griffin’s numbers are to Luck and Kaep’s.

  8. Jack and Mike:

    A higher % of RG3 passes have been >15 yards this year than last.

    Here are the advanced stats: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerpage.php?playerid=10-R.Griffin&pos=QB&season=all which show the huge drop off from last year to this year. He is still doing decent in adjusted yards per attempt which some say is the most predictive of all (he has a higher AYPA than Cam Newton)

    He decreased our chances of winning in most games this year. http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playeryear.php?playerid=10-R.Griffin&pos=QB&year=2013 Though on net he added win probability.

    Last year he added over 3 % points of win probability over the course of the year.

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