The Nats won two more today, one on a damn miracle, running their record to 81-70. They’re an MLB-best 21-6 since August 20. They’re also still 4.5 back of the Reds, though, and Cincy isn’t falling off (10-6 in September).
The Reds have 10 games left. Let’s say they win six, which is in line with their season- and September-long averages. That puts them at 92 wins.
For the Nats to get to 92, well, they have to win all 11 of their remaining games. Meaning, they need some help.
Each game Cincy drops is one the Nats don’t have to win. If the Reds go 5-5, then the Nats have to go 10-1. If the Reds go 4-6, the Nats have to go 9-2. If the Reds go 3-7, the Nats have to go 8-3.
I’ll stop there, because the Reds haven’t gone 3-7 over any 10-game stretch since June, and they haven’t gone 2-8 all year. The Nats need to win at least eight of their last 11, and probably more than that.
The thing is, Washington is 13-3 in September. If they play it out at that pace — tall order, I know — they’ll go 9-2 and finish with 90 wins.
What are the odds of the Reds winning just four of 10 to stall out at 90? A lot less than their chances of winning seven to shut it down.
This is fun, though. Make a move against Miami this week and we’ll see where things stand come Monday. Could be interesting.
Nats’ last 10 games:
*One vs. Atlanta (.481 on the road)
*Four vs. Miami (.320 on the road)
*Three at St. Louis (.640 at home)
*Three at Arizona (.573 at home)
Reds’ last 11 games:
*One at Houston (.316 at home)
*Three at Pittsburgh (.640 at home)
*Three vs. the Mets (.480 on the road)
*Three vs. Pittsburgh (.520 on the road)