Redskins-Seahawks Predictions

Hey, let’s play Predictions! Last week’s winner is Stranger danger, who nailed his Cowboys game pick and now gets to make a guest post. (Just email me, Stranger.) A reminder on how it works, for the uninitiated:

Our Redskins-loving “staff” makes predictions in the post, readers make predictions in the comments, and the commenter who comes closest to predicting the final score wins a guest post. Hip-hip!

Chris Mottram: Seahawks, 27-17

The two teams share some similarities in the way they run their offenses, and both share a lot of similarities statistically — extremely effective running and use the pass to keep things honest, all while scoring 25-plus points per game. There are two key differences that favor Seattle though.

1) Their defense is superior. Football Outsiders ranks them fourth in the NFL in DVOA, while the Skins are down at 17 (granted, their Weighted DVOA, which takes into account how they’re currently playing, has the two seventh and and 13th, respectively). Seattle is No. 1 in the league in points allowed, giving up 15.3 per game, almost 10 full points better than the Skins.

2) They played a considerably tougher schedule than Washington, so they’re probably better than the 11 wins suggest. Football Outsiders has them as the best team in the NFL in overall team efficiency. Washington is 9th.

What the Skins do have in their favor is home-field advantage. It’ll give Washington an edge, but it’s not like Seattle is incapable of winning on the road. They beat the Bears in Chicago in Week 13 and destroyed the Bills in Toronto in Week 15 (I know, the Bills, but still). Also, the Skins have RGIII, who will be the best player on the field.

JP Finlay: Redskins, 27-24

Throughout the win streak, I was optimistic, even a touch cocky at times. The Skins were the better team on the field for all of those games. Sure they needed a few good breaks against the Giants and the Ravens, but in all I felt confident the Skins would win those games. I no longer feel that way.

Seattle is good. They have a young, athletic defense that will swarm to the ball in a way the Skins haven’t seen throughout the win streak. The Skins were able to control the game against the Cowboys by running the spread option, with Morris gashing the inside of the Cowboys D-line and RGIII hitting the corners. It didn’t matter that Griffin was less than full-speed, Morris dominated.

That won’t be the case against the Seahawks. A more disciplined defensive front and better linebackers will read and react to the Skins spread option. Two keys for the Skins to win: commitment to the run and wide receivers making catches against physical corners. Even without the spread option, Kyle Shanahan and the Skins offense must continue to hammer Morris and wear down the Seahawks. I’m guessing Morris’ line will end around 22 carries for about 90 yards, but what’s more important is that the run game sets up the play-action.

Seattle’s corners are really good, but they’re also young and inexperienced. No starter in Seattle’s secondary has more than three years experience, and both starting corners have only been in the league for two years. That’s a lot of green.

All the national folks seem focused on Griffin’s legs, but his arm is just as dangerous. Play action will be a key for the Skins offense; intermediate routes to Pierre Garcon that allow him to create in space, and deep passes to Aldrick Robinson and Leonard Hankerson, maybe even Santana Moss. For the Skins to win, Griffin will need to pass for three touchdowns, and I think he can do it.

It’s going to be ugly, a grind-it-out game on a sloppy field. Marshawn Lynch will get his yards, Russell Wilson will complete a bunch of dumpoffs and underneath crossing routes. But in the end the Skins have a chance to win. I won’t bet against Griffin. And I know for damn sure the Skins are due to beat Seattle in the playoffs.

Matt Terl: Seahawks, 29-28

On a walk-off two-point conversion, because that seems like a) the sort of thing that Pete Carroll would do, and b) the sort of thing that would fit the narrative of the Seahawks’ season so far.

Andy Peden: Redskins, 28-23

Somehow it seems like the national perspective is that Russell Wilson is now playing better then RGIII and that the Seahawks defense is well equipped to stop the Skins offense. I’m trying to think when the last time a team won seven in a row and hosted a home playoff game but was a three-point dog. None of this makes sense. Skins are 9-1 with Garçon in the lineup, the defense is playing much better and the Skins have shown they can put up 28-plus points a number of different ways.

Todd Davis: Redskins, 19-17

Despite the hype, Seattle was 8-0 at home (including the Green Bay debacle) and a mere 3-5 on the road. Four of those road losses were to St. Louis (sound familiar?), Arizona, Detroit and, most recently, Miami. And none of those losses came on “fields” that were anything like the old dirt-track at Rosecroft, I mean, FedExField. This isn’t the ’85 Bears. Are they good? Sure. And they were never blown out, so I think this one is close. But these teams are incredibly similar, and when other things are equal, I’ll take RGIII to show up like never before.

Jack Kogod: Redskins, 27-23

Alfred Morris gashes the Seahwaks D for 150-plus while RGIII keeps them honest with his arm and feet.

Me: Seahawks, 24-17

Last week I went with JP’s prediction, which was a good choice. This week I’m going with Chris’s, unfortunately.

Composite prediction: Redskins, 23-21

44 thoughts on “Redskins-Seahawks Predictions”

  1. Because I don’t have any compelling, sentimental stories about growing up a Redskins fan it’s really better if I never win.

    Skins 19 – Seahawks 36

  2. Seahawks – 20
    Skins – 21

    I actually think the Seahawks will probably win, but I don’t want to win this contest on a Skins playoff loss! So let’s say RG3 wins it on the final drive, and I, wearing my brand new signed RG3 jersey, freak the f out.

  3. Seattle can’t stop the run and our pass rush is going to clown the shit out of Wilson who will look like a rookie. Skins 31-20, should be 31-13 but Haslett seems to give up an easy TD in the 4th when the game’s mostly locked up.

    Seattle’s had a nice year, but beating up on bad teams doesn’t mean anything in the playoffs, and it’s their misfortune they have to play a team that should be able to exploit their weaknesses so easily in the first round. The funny thing is that were it not for that MNF catch, Seattle would likely be traveling to SF this weekend, which would be a very winnable game for them.

  4. Redskins will win against the Sea hawks, and make a run for the Super Bowl. NFC East is the best division in football, and expect the Redskins to win the Super Bowl.

  5. 35 Zorn Stars
    21 Followers of His Holiness the Black Jesus

    It’s close until the fourth quarter, but defense finally shows its weaknesses- everything. ‘Lil Shanahan punches Pete Carroll in his smug face.

    (I have predicted Redskins losses the last 4 weeks, so this has become a part of my sickening compulsions).

  6. Did someone say ‘wear down the Seahawks’??
    What?? I’m not sure, despite all that’s been said over the last week or so, If anyone is really aware how tough the Seahawks are.
    If we simply look at half time scores in any Seahawks game, and what happens when a good team adjusts, Seahawks simply dominate. when theyare behind, they come back. If they’re ahead, NO one has been able to stop the bleeding. Indeed, Seattle just gets better, especially over the last five games

  7. Skins–24, Hawks–16. Wilson will throw Hail Mary at the end to Tate to to tie the game. Catch should stand but refs wrongly reverse it. Pete Carroll and shanny get in epic fist fight.

    Hail!

  8. just don’t see that many points being scored in this one, but Tana’s big game exploiting the nickel back is the difference.

    Also, the Skins are 3-1 against birds of prey this year.

    seahawks 15, Skins 20

  9. Home of the most embarrassing basketball team in the land: 31

    Hahaha, at least we have a team, enjoy getting drunk and trying to get strangers to take bets on how long it takes them to drop the tossed fish: 27

    Aldrick Robinson gets loose and hauls in a signature 55 yarder, then disappears back into the mists once again.

  10. 20-13 Redskins. Defense gets pressure. (Anyone watch the Rams/Seahawks last week…Rams blitz worked OK, ours will work better). Watch out on special teams, Carrol likes tricky stuff (i.e. – surprise onsides kicks). Run Albert Run! Can’t wait!

  11. Cool helmets – 28
    Shitty, outdated bird helmets – 24

    RG3 sits court side with Gary Williams during UMD game, talks him into coaching Wizards, they make the playoffs.

  12. Skins – 24
    Seahawks – 17

    Pro Bowl Mo’ carries us to victory, while at the same time making the play action more effective on the few instances we use it.

  13. Redskins 24
    Seahawks 20

    Home team wins and sends a bit of an FU to “The 12th Man” with the noise generated at FedEx.

    RGIII looks more RGIII like and loses the brace that’s been holding him back.

  14. RGIII losing at home in his first playoff game? Haha yeah ok.

    17-16 Skins. RGIII with a TD rushing and throws one to Moss to win it in the 4th.

  15. Redskins, 24-21.

    The difference between the Hawks on the road vs. at home can’t be overstated. Yes, they beat the Bears in Chicago, but that took OT. The Bills game? That was in Toronto, which is at best a neutral field for the Bills. That leaves them a very iffy 2-5 on the road.

    If RGIII is healthy, I think the Skins win by a touchdown. A hobbled RGIII can still lead them to a three point win. At least I hope so.

  16. The Seahawks have won in the playoffs in the recent past and I think that tips it a little there way.

    Seattle 27
    DC 21

    The bright side is the Redskins overcame so much this season with injuries and the like that a healthier team (hopefully) can do it again for a few years. I expect the NFC East to be a two-team division next season and the Skins are one of the top two.

  17. Skins 23
    Seahawks 20

    Rob Jackson makes another game changer late making it hard for staff not have him starting somewhere next season.

  18. Skins 31
    Seahawks 28
    That pessimistic feeling that everything collapsing around us and we wake up disppointed doesn’t exist becaus lets all get serious. Regardless of what happens, did anyone honestly think we’d be playing home football in January? Hail

  19. Skins 38
    Hawks 34

    If I had to bet real money, it’d be a hawks win, but here I get to be a shameless homer!! We win when Seattle fails to score a TD despite being deep in the red zone as time runs out. Sound familiar?

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