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Redskins-Seahawks Predictions
By Jamie Mottram | January 4, 2013
Hey, let’s play Predictions! Last week’s winner is Stranger danger, who nailed his Cowboys game pick and now gets to make a guest post. (Just email me, Stranger.) A reminder on how it works, for the uninitiated:
Our Redskins-loving “staff” makes predictions in the post, readers make predictions in the comments, and the commenter who comes closest to predicting the final score wins a guest post. Hip-hip!
Chris Mottram: Seahawks, 27-17
The two teams share some similarities in the way they run their offenses, and both share a lot of similarities statistically — extremely effective running and use the pass to keep things honest, all while scoring 25-plus points per game. There are two key differences that favor Seattle though.
1) Their defense is superior. Football Outsiders ranks them fourth in the NFL in DVOA, while the Skins are down at 17 (granted, their Weighted DVOA, which takes into account how they’re currently playing, has the two seventh and and 13th, respectively). Seattle is No. 1 in the league in points allowed, giving up 15.3 per game, almost 10 full points better than the Skins.
2) They played a considerably tougher schedule than Washington, so they’re probably better than the 11 wins suggest. Football Outsiders has them as the best team in the NFL in overall team efficiency. Washington is 9th.
What the Skins do have in their favor is home-field advantage. It’ll give Washington an edge, but it’s not like Seattle is incapable of winning on the road. They beat the Bears in Chicago in Week 13 and destroyed the Bills in Toronto in Week 15 (I know, the Bills, but still). Also, the Skins have RGIII, who will be the best player on the field.
JP Finlay: Redskins, 27-24
Throughout the win streak, I was optimistic, even a touch cocky at times. The Skins were the better team on the field for all of those games. Sure they needed a few good breaks against the Giants and the Ravens, but in all I felt confident the Skins would win those games. I no longer feel that way.
Seattle is good. They have a young, athletic defense that will swarm to the ball in a way the Skins haven’t seen throughout the win streak. The Skins were able to control the game against the Cowboys by running the spread option, with Morris gashing the inside of the Cowboys D-line and RGIII hitting the corners. It didn’t matter that Griffin was less than full-speed, Morris dominated.
That won’t be the case against the Seahawks. A more disciplined defensive front and better linebackers will read and react to the Skins spread option. Two keys for the Skins to win: commitment to the run and wide receivers making catches against physical corners. Even without the spread option, Kyle Shanahan and the Skins offense must continue to hammer Morris and wear down the Seahawks. I’m guessing Morris’ line will end around 22 carries for about 90 yards, but what’s more important is that the run game sets up the play-action.
Seattle’s corners are really good, but they’re also young and inexperienced. No starter in Seattle’s secondary has more than three years experience, and both starting corners have only been in the league for two years. That’s a lot of green.
All the national folks seem focused on Griffin’s legs, but his arm is just as dangerous. Play action will be a key for the Skins offense; intermediate routes to Pierre Garcon that allow him to create in space, and deep passes to Aldrick Robinson and Leonard Hankerson, maybe even Santana Moss. For the Skins to win, Griffin will need to pass for three touchdowns, and I think he can do it.
It’s going to be ugly, a grind-it-out game on a sloppy field. Marshawn Lynch will get his yards, Russell Wilson will complete a bunch of dumpoffs and underneath crossing routes. But in the end the Skins have a chance to win. I won’t bet against Griffin. And I know for damn sure the Skins are due to beat Seattle in the playoffs.
Matt Terl: Seahawks, 29-28
On a walk-off two-point conversion, because that seems like a) the sort of thing that Pete Carroll would do, and b) the sort of thing that would fit the narrative of the Seahawks’ season so far.
Andy Peden: Redskins, 28-23
Somehow it seems like the national perspective is that Russell Wilson is now playing better then RGIII and that the Seahawks defense is well equipped to stop the Skins offense. I’m trying to think when the last time a team won seven in a row and hosted a home playoff game but was a three-point dog. None of this makes sense. Skins are 9-1 with Garçon in the lineup, the defense is playing much better and the Skins have shown they can put up 28-plus points a number of different ways.
Todd Davis: Redskins, 19-17
Despite the hype, Seattle was 8-0 at home (including the Green Bay debacle) and a mere 3-5 on the road. Four of those road losses were to St. Louis (sound familiar?), Arizona, Detroit and, most recently, Miami. And none of those losses came on “fields” that were anything like the old dirt-track at Rosecroft, I mean, FedExField. This isn’t the ‘85 Bears. Are they good? Sure. And they were never blown out, so I think this one is close. But these teams are incredibly similar, and when other things are equal, I’ll take RGIII to show up like never before.
Jack Kogod: Redskins, 27-23
Alfred Morris gashes the Seahwaks D for 150-plus while RGIII keeps them honest with his arm and feet.
Me: Seahawks, 24-17
Last week I went with JP’s prediction, which was a good choice. This week I’m going with Chris’s, unfortunately.
Composite prediction: Redskins, 23-21
Topics: Predictions, Redskins | 44 Comments »
January 4th, 2013 at 5:43 PM
36 Seahawks
24 Redskins
36 Waist
January 4th, 2013 at 5:44 PM
Because I don’t have any compelling, sentimental stories about growing up a Redskins fan it’s really better if I never win.
Skins 19 – Seahawks 36
January 4th, 2013 at 5:49 PM
Seahawks – 20
Skins – 21
I actually think the Seahawks will probably win, but I don’t want to win this contest on a Skins playoff loss! So let’s say RG3 wins it on the final drive, and I, wearing my brand new signed RG3 jersey, freak the f out.
January 4th, 2013 at 6:03 PM
35-20 Seahawks
January 4th, 2013 at 6:06 PM
Skins – 31
Seahawks -28
Kobra Kai the hero.
Niles Paul has a big kick return to set up the FG
January 4th, 2013 at 6:07 PM
Redskins, 36-16
January 4th, 2013 at 6:33 PM
Seattle can’t stop the run and our pass rush is going to clown the shit out of Wilson who will look like a rookie. Skins 31-20, should be 31-13 but Haslett seems to give up an easy TD in the 4th when the game’s mostly locked up.
Seattle’s had a nice year, but beating up on bad teams doesn’t mean anything in the playoffs, and it’s their misfortune they have to play a team that should be able to exploit their weaknesses so easily in the first round. The funny thing is that were it not for that MNF catch, Seattle would likely be traveling to SF this weekend, which would be a very winnable game for them.
January 4th, 2013 at 6:47 PM
Redskins will win against the Sea hawks, and make a run for the Super Bowl. NFC East is the best division in football, and expect the Redskins to win the Super Bowl.
January 4th, 2013 at 7:02 PM
Skins – 18 (All Kai, All Day!)
Seahawks 14
Make it so.
January 4th, 2013 at 8:00 PM
C. Griffin – Added to roster
DJ Johnson – Placed on IR
January 4th, 2013 at 8:27 PM
35 Zorn Stars
21 Followers of His Holiness the Black Jesus
It’s close until the fourth quarter, but defense finally shows its weaknesses- everything. ‘Lil Shanahan punches Pete Carroll in his smug face.
(I have predicted Redskins losses the last 4 weeks, so this has become a part of my sickening compulsions).
January 4th, 2013 at 9:01 PM
Did someone say ‘wear down the Seahawks’??
What?? I’m not sure, despite all that’s been said over the last week or so, If anyone is really aware how tough the Seahawks are.
If we simply look at half time scores in any Seahawks game, and what happens when a good team adjusts, Seahawks simply dominate. when theyare behind, they come back. If they’re ahead, NO one has been able to stop the bleeding. Indeed, Seattle just gets better, especially over the last five games
January 4th, 2013 at 9:24 PM
Skins–24, Hawks–16. Wilson will throw Hail Mary at the end to Tate to to tie the game. Catch should stand but refs wrongly reverse it. Pete Carroll and shanny get in epic fist fight.
Hail!
January 4th, 2013 at 9:38 PM
just don’t see that many points being scored in this one, but Tana’s big game exploiting the nickel back is the difference.
Also, the Skins are 3-1 against birds of prey this year.
seahawks 15, Skins 20
January 4th, 2013 at 10:06 PM
Hawks make RGIII beat them with his legs.
RGIII legs < Seattle defense.
Skins: 17
Hawks: 28
I'm still happy.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:44 PM
Home of the most embarrassing basketball team in the land: 31
Hahaha, at least we have a team, enjoy getting drunk and trying to get strangers to take bets on how long it takes them to drop the tossed fish: 27
Aldrick Robinson gets loose and hauls in a signature 55 yarder, then disappears back into the mists once again.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:04 PM
@ Max Wass: “Only if she’s 5′3″
January 5th, 2013 at 3:09 AM
20-13 Redskins. Defense gets pressure. (Anyone watch the Rams/Seahawks last week…Rams blitz worked OK, ours will work better). Watch out on special teams, Carrol likes tricky stuff (i.e. – surprise onsides kicks). Run Albert Run! Can’t wait!
January 5th, 2013 at 8:54 AM
Cool helmets – 28
Shitty, outdated bird helmets – 24
RG3 sits court side with Gary Williams during UMD game, talks him into coaching Wizards, they make the playoffs.
January 5th, 2013 at 11:59 AM
Sea 34
Wash 13
At half time Morris grabs a limo ride to the airport. Lynch drops 150+ yrds and three TD’s.
January 5th, 2013 at 12:45 PM
I’m in a glass case of emotion
9-3 Redskins.
January 5th, 2013 at 12:47 PM
Skins – 24
Seahawks – 17
Pro Bowl Mo’ carries us to victory, while at the same time making the play action more effective on the few instances we use it.
January 5th, 2013 at 1:28 PM
Ugh. Seattle 30 Redskins 24. I hope I am wrong.
January 5th, 2013 at 1:36 PM
Redskins 24
Seahawks 20
Home team wins and sends a bit of an FU to “The 12th Man” with the noise generated at FedEx.
RGIII looks more RGIII like and loses the brace that’s been holding him back.
January 5th, 2013 at 2:17 PM
Seahawks 10
Redskins 16
DEM ‘SKINS IS BACKKK!!!!!!!!!
January 5th, 2013 at 2:24 PM
RGIII losing at home in his first playoff game? Haha yeah ok.
17-16 Skins. RGIII with a TD rushing and throws one to Moss to win it in the 4th.
January 5th, 2013 at 6:09 PM
Redskins, 24-21.
The difference between the Hawks on the road vs. at home can’t be overstated. Yes, they beat the Bears in Chicago, but that took OT. The Bills game? That was in Toronto, which is at best a neutral field for the Bills. That leaves them a very iffy 2-5 on the road.
If RGIII is healthy, I think the Skins win by a touchdown. A hobbled RGIII can still lead them to a three point win. At least I hope so.
January 5th, 2013 at 7:58 PM
Have the seahawks played a primetime game this year?
Skins, 28 – 10
January 5th, 2013 at 10:20 PM
Skins 17
Hawks 14
When do the Mariners start to not hit again?
January 5th, 2013 at 11:18 PM
Seahawks 23
Redskins 21
January 5th, 2013 at 11:46 PM
Skins 24-21
Alfred and Griffin rushing game is key in a close one.
January 6th, 2013 at 4:27 AM
Skins 42 Hawks 17
January 6th, 2013 at 9:30 AM
Skins- 27
Seahawks- 17
Fuck Frazier Crane
January 6th, 2013 at 9:56 AM
The Seahawks have won in the playoffs in the recent past and I think that tips it a little there way.
Seattle 27
DC 21
The bright side is the Redskins overcame so much this season with injuries and the like that a healthier team (hopefully) can do it again for a few years. I expect the NFC East to be a two-team division next season and the Skins are one of the top two.
January 6th, 2013 at 10:40 AM
Redskins 28
Hawks 24
Kai is money in the bank and there will be a safety.
January 6th, 2013 at 10:47 AM
Skins 34-Seahawks 27. In RGIII we trust.
January 6th, 2013 at 11:03 AM
Hawks 26
Skins 19
January 6th, 2013 at 11:20 AM
Skins 23
Seahawks 20
Rob Jackson makes another game changer late making it hard for staff not have him starting somewhere next season.
January 6th, 2013 at 12:45 PM
Seattle 41
Skins 23
January 6th, 2013 at 1:11 PM
Skins 31
Seahawks 28
That pessimistic feeling that everything collapsing around us and we wake up disppointed doesn’t exist becaus lets all get serious. Regardless of what happens, did anyone honestly think we’d be playing home football in January? Hail
January 6th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
Skins 38
Hawks 34
If I had to bet real money, it’d be a hawks win, but here I get to be a shameless homer!! We win when Seattle fails to score a TD despite being deep in the red zone as time runs out. Sound familiar?
January 6th, 2013 at 2:30 PM
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January 6th, 2013 at 4:09 PM
Seahawks 51-28
January 6th, 2013 at 11:59 PM
Hawks-24
Skins-14
I don’t think RG3 will finish the game.