Skins’ Playoff Chances About 50/50

The Skins have won four in a row, are one game back of the division and Wild Card races and have a very favorable schedule remaining. Oh god, do you see what they’ve done here? They’ve made us optimistic! THEY HAVE US RIGHT WHERE THEY WANT US. This only ends in sadness.

Onto the odds of making the postseason …

Football Outsiders: 48.8%
Playoff Status: 49%
Last week’s odds: 39%

And how they get there …

Clearest route for the Skins to make the playoffs:
Win-out. If they do that, and the Giants lose one of their last three, the Skins are in. But even if the Giants also win-out, a 10-win Washington team would have an excellent chance at a Wild Card spot, assuming Seattle and/or Chicago falters down the stretch. Both have some tough games remaining, and Chicago seems to be headed in the wrong direction already.

Another route:
The Skins lose one of their last three and the Giants lose two. Entirely possible because of New York’s games at Atlanta and at Baltimore. The Skins and Giants would finished tied at 9-7 with Washington holding the tiebreaker.

Another, more complicated, route:
If the Bears and/or Seahawks lose two of their last three and the Skins finish 9-7, they could win a Wild Card spot depending on which games those three teams win. If any of them finish tied, the tiebreaker is conference record. Right now, Washington and Seattle are at 6-4 with Chicago at 5-4. So, conference wins down the stretch will carry more weight than beating the Browns or Bills, for example. And then if two or more teams have the same overall record and the same conference record it goes to the third tiebreaker, which is record against common opponents. I told you this route was complicated.

Other routes:
I dunno, man. There are like a million of them. Get creative. An example: The Redskins and Cowboys go 1-2, the Giants go 0-3, and Washington wins the division at 8-8!

6 thoughts on “Skins’ Playoff Chances About 50/50”

  1. I think your “Another Route” could go to the Cowboys if they also go 2 and 1, beating the Skins, at home, in the last game, in the most disappointing game ever (ever?). Rich Campbell has a write up in the Wash Times that notes if all three teams finish 9-7, the winner of Skins/Cowboys would likely move on.

  2. If Dallas beats the Skins in Week 17 and both teams finish 9-7 atop the East, the tiebreaker would come down to record against common opponents — they would be tied in head-to-head and tied in division record, which are the first two tiebreakers. I’m too lazy to look up who would win that common opponents tiebreak scenario.

  3. Mike Bradley – how about the replacement refs giving Seattle a win.

    Shameless – I’m going with Boogie Cousins even if it is a cross-racial/sport co-nickname with Demarcus.

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