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Analyzing Maryland’s Sweet 16 Chances
By Jamie Mottram | March 15, 2010
Here a day late (we don’t pay well, or at all) with analysis of Maryland’s tournament draw is Mr. Irrelevant Maryland sports correspondent Andy Peden.
First Round — Houston
Houston finished the regular season at 15-15 and 7-9 in CUSA. CUSA has been dominated the past decade or so by some guy named Calipari that is now leading Kentucky to their soon to be vacated Final Four. CUSA has been a one-bid league for years mainly because Memphis hasn’t lost a conference game since they dropped “State” from their name. This year UTEP dominated (15-1) the league but wasn’t able to win the conference tournament. Enter Houston who won four games in four days.
They are coached by Tom Penders who most D.C.-area folks will remember from his days at GW. They run an up-tempo style of offense that is fairly efficient (ranked 40th by Kempom.com). They lead the nation in turnover margin at +12.6 and in steals 6.4 (both stats tempo adjusted). Their best player is Aubrey Coleman who leads the nation in scoring with 25.6 ppg. While he can fill it up, he’s not a particularly good shooter at 43.9% FG and 32.6% 3FG and he shoots, A LOT. For those that think GV shoots too much, this guy put up 200+ more shots that GV.
After that, there isn’t much there. They go with a 5′8″ PG, a 6′4″ SF and rotate a bunch of 6′6″ to 6′8″ post players. No one inside does a whole lot. For that reason and the fact that they are really a .500 team, this is a fairly good matchup for MD.
MD typically has trouble with teams that can put two big bodies on the floor and get a lot of offensive boards like GT, Wake and even Duke. That’s not Houston. They are actually one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. Normally, I would say that MD would outrun this team, but this year I can see MD really working the flex in halfcourt sets, pounding it inside to Williams, Milbourne and Gregory. Kenpom.com said Maryland by 14, which sounds about right to me.
Second Round — Michigan State or New Mexico State
If MD takes care of Houston, they most likely play Michigan State. MSU didn’t finish the season well. They lost three in a row after Kalin Lucas was injured and while they won five of six to close the regular season, the only good team they beat in that stretch was Purdue. Then, surprisingly, they got beat by Minnesota in the quarters of the Big Ten tourney. I’m not going to predict an upset, but I think New Mexico State might give them trouble. We’ll go ahead and assume MSU advances, which means MD would face a typical Izzo team.
They are physical, play tough halfcourt defense, block shots and can rebound. They are not a huge team with Morgan, Green and Roe all in the 6′6″ to 6′8″ range but they do take up space. They don’t shoot particularly well (outside the top 200 in both 3FG% and FT%), but they move the ball and get good looks inside. This team is similar to MD with a HOF coach, experienced guards, great ball movement and tough defense. The difference between the two is MD is a better shooting team while MSU can rebound you to death.
If MD’s bigs can keep pace with MSU inside, MD should be able to win this game. If MD gives up a box score like they did to Derrick Favors or Brian Zoubek, then it’s over. Because no one on MSU is freakishly tall like Zoubek or freakishly athletic like Favors, I think Maryland holds its own inside and wins this one.
If MD can get to the Sweet 16, then we’ll break down their next opponent Monday. My bet is that team would be Kansas. (Ed. note: No shit!)
Topics: Guest Posts, Maryland | 5 Comments »
March 15th, 2010 at 11:28 PM
Planning on going to the game in St. Louis already. Mottrams don’t fucking jinx this game. I swear I will stop reading if you have jinxed it and I don’t get to see Terps vs. Kansas
March 16th, 2010 at 5:44 AM
All I’m saying is: I want Georgetown– oh yeah, I want Duke too. Let’s make that happen, ok?
March 16th, 2010 at 7:20 AM
“…some guy named Calipari that is now leading Kentucky to their soon to be vacated Final Four”
The best description of Calipari.. EVER.. thanks
March 16th, 2010 at 9:35 PM
Fuck yes. That picture gets me hard.
March 16th, 2010 at 10:35 PM
The best part is that it’s real; never before has a photo looked more like an illustration.