« DMV: Say Goodbye to That Side Back Fat | Home | DMV: Baltimore’s First Amish Ballplayer »
Here’s How the Terps Make the Tourney
By Chris Mottram | February 16, 2009
Even suggesting that the Terps have a chance of earning an at-large NCAA Tournament bid is pretty far-fetched, but we have a history of clinging to near-impossible postseason hopes, so why stop now? After Saturday’s win over Virginia Tech, Maryland is now .500 (5-5) in the ACC, and that seems to be all it’ll take to get a bid. The problem for the Terps will be finishing the season at .500.
Here’s the Terps’ remaining schedule: At Clemson, vs. UNC, vs. Duke, at NC State, vs. Wake, at UVA.
To even have a chance at getting a bid (short of winning the ACC Tournament), Maryland needs to win at least three of those last six regular season games. The schedule sets up favorably, with the toughest three contests being played at the Comcast Center. Assuming they can win at least three, and finish the regular season at 8-8 (or better) in the ACC, they’ll have a resume that includes wins over Michigan State (a likely two-seed; currently 6 RPI), Michigan (a bubble team; currently 53 RPI), Miami (a bubble team; currently 47 RPI), Virginia Tech (likely at-large team; currently 49 RPI), and a win over Clemson, UNC, Duke OR Wake, all of which are tourney locks. That’s the resume of a tournament team, for sure.
All of this, of course, ignores an embarrassing loss to Morgan State and being run out of the gym by a Georgetown team that looks NIT-bound itself. Plus the fact that even if they finish 8-8, losing in the first round of the ACC Tournament could be a death blow.
Tomorrow night’s game at Clemson (ESPN2, 7:30) will begin to clear up whether we’ll continue this little fantasy or officially start putting all of our hopes on George Mason’s back.
Topics: Maryland | 8 Comments »
February 16th, 2009 at 3:46 PM
“We’ll continue this little fantasy or officially start putting all of our hopes on George Mason’s back.”
Do NOT overlook the James Madison Dukes, sir, as I have for the past 10 years.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:50 PM
“Here’s How the Terps Make the Tourney”
Win out. Completely. Or hope Van Pelt’s on the selection committee.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:56 PM
If they get to 8-8, then they will still have to win their first round ACC game. Tomorrow against Clemson is the game they have to get. Clemson has lost 2 of 3 and is rip for an upset.
Georgetown’s collapse is now at epic proportions.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:57 PM
If the Terps win out completely, they’d probably be a two-seed.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:08 PM
“To even have a chance at getting a bid (short of winning the ACC Tournament)”….
Not trying to be a wise guy, just curious….what if they go 2-4 down the stretch, beating only N.C. State and Virginia, but go to the ACC semis, or even the final, without winning it. Would that be enough?
Also, “likely at-large team” seems pretty generous for Va. Tech.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:16 PM
There are a million scenarios like the one you present, Dan, which is why I kept it simple and focused on just winning 3 of 6. The ACC Tourney run you speak of would depend on which teams they beat, obviously.
As for Tech, they’re currently a nine-seed in Lunardi’s bracket. He’s usually spot-on. And they should have no problem finishing at least .500 in the ACC.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Gotcha.
I’m no bracketologist, but I have Va. Tech going 2-4 down the stretch, which would leave them at 8-8 in the ACC, but with a 2-5 closing run. Different topic, tho.
February 16th, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Hey, I said “likely.” They aren’t a lock, but I think they have a better chance of getting in than not.