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History Says Caps Winning Game 4 Means 40% Chance Of Epic Fail

Here to prep you for tonight’s Game 4 is Caps correspondent Brad Parker.

By now we all know the Caps have never won a game when having the chance to take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven series. (Twice they’ve swept a best-of-five series and in ’85 blew a 2-0 lead on the Islanders and lost the next three.) But what happens next? How have the Caps performed up 2-1 in best-of-sevens? Great question, Jamie Mottram.

The Caps’ Record in Game Fours
When leading 2-1 in any series: 10-6
When leading 2-1 in a best-of-seven: 10-5
When leading 2-1 after leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven: 3-3

Awesome! That means history is on our side in Game 4. (As seen above, on 10 occasions the Caps won a Game 4 to grab a 3-1 lead.) But as Caps fans we know better than to think that means we won all 10 series. Or even nine.

The Caps’ Record in Series in Which They Led 3-1: 6-4

Seriously, six-and-fucking-four! In Stanley Cup history a team has taken a 3-1 lead 229 times. That team has gone on to win the series 209 times. That’s 91.3% of the time. The Caps win 60% of the time they’re up 3-1.

Washington owns 20% of all 3-1 collapses in NHL history. The Caps have also rallied from down 3-1 to win on two occasions, including against the Rangers in ’09. So six of the 20 series in which a team has blown a 3-1 advantage have involved the Caps.

Yes, this is a different team. Yes, we’d much rather come home up 3-1 than tied 2-2. Tonight’s game is huge, but no matter who wins this is far from over.

D.C. sports fan and digital media guy that's been doing this since 2004. Once threw a football further than Chris Cooley.



  1. DarkHeart

    May 8, 2013 at 2:40 PM

    Oatsie looks like he just walked out of the Rezidentura.

  2. Mike

    May 9, 2013 at 12:15 AM

    Caps losing series 4-2. After tonight I do not see them being able to win another game. Ovi is absent, Holts is swiss cheese, and defense just loli-gags in the D zone.

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