Predicting How the Rest of the Skins’ Season Might Play Out

Football coaches like to break the 16-game NFL regular season into quarters. This seems to run contrary to the “taking it one game at a time” philosophy we always hear, but whatever. Four-game quarters is how they approach it. So let’s do the same.

Through the first quarter, the Skins are 3-1. In the Wild Card Era, teams that start 3-1 make the playoffs 72 percent of the time. (I made that up, but it sounds about right.) Now, onward to the next three quarters of the season to see where this team will wind up.

Second Quarter (2-2)

Game 5: Eagles, home. LOSS. Before the season, it didn’t seem possible that the Skins could compete with Philly this season. Now, they may enter this game as the favorites. As much as I want to believe in Washington, I’m still not confident enough to pick them to win. That could change based on how Philly does in Buffalo this weekend. Even at 1-3, they’re a pretty terrifying team to face. /flashbacks to last year.

Game 6: Panthers, away. WIN. I’ll be there with a group of no fewer than eight other Skins fans. We did this two year ago, and Washington lost. That won’t happen again if the 12th MAN has anything to say about it. (We don’t, but Carolina isn’t very good.)

Game 7: Bills, away. LOSS. Buffalo is basically the Skins of the AFC. No one expected them to be 3-1, and no one is really sure how good they are. I’ll give the Bills the benefit of the doubt simply ’cause it’s a road game for Washington.

Game 8: 49ers, home. WIN. A west coast team coming east to play a game at 10 a.m. their time is a huge advantage for the home team. Having said that, S.F. is one meltdown against Dallas away from being 4-0. This is a difficult game to pick.

Third Quarter (3-1)

Game 9: Dolphins, away. WIN. Miami is the worst team in football.

Game 10: Cowboys, home. WIN. The Skins should’ve won the first meeting in Dallas. This one’s at home, and I can’t stand the thought of losing both games to the Cowboys.

Game 11: Seahawks, away. WIN. It’s hard to predict a road victory to the west coast, but Seattle is really, really bad.

Game 12: Jets, home. LOSS. This is a totally winnable game with how the Jets looks right now, but I basically don’t see the Skins winning five games in a row. Analysis!

Fourth Quarter (1-3)

Game 13: Patriots, home. LOSS. Who knows where the Skins will be by mid-December (8-4 if I’m right so far, which I totally am), but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be on par with New England.

Game 14: Giants, away. LOSS. With any luck, this will be a huge divisional game. New York will probably be better by then as they continue to overcome injuries/get players back.

Game 15: Vikings, home. WIN. The way Minnesota is going, McNabb probably won’t be the starter anymore by then. Too bad.

Game 16: Eagles, away. LOSS. Another potentially big NFC East game to close the season if Philly can get on track. If I don’t think the Skins can beat Philly at home, then I’m not gonna pick ’em on the road either.

Overall: 9-7

Which, let’s be honest, would be impressive for a team most picked to win somewhere between 5-7 games this year. Meaningful football in December should be our hopes and dreams for the Skins in 2011. And it looks like that just might happen.

15 thoughts on “Predicting How the Rest of the Skins’ Season Might Play Out”

  1. I think these are very reasonable predictions. I hope Shanahan can really coach them up out of the bye. I was finding pieces of my TiVo remote for months after the last Eagles game (not kidding).

    Additionally, I feel like both the Cards and Rams games are the types of games Washington traditionally loses earlier in the season and then come back to bite them in the rear when they could potentially be fighting for a playoff spot in December.

  2. These projected outcomes are too predictable for Snyder-era Redskins (perhaps, if Shanahan culture is really taking over, we’ll see a return to normalcy). I think we beat the Giants again. Also, if we’re still Danny’s Redskins, we’ll lose 1 or 2 of these four: Seattle, Miami, Minny, Carolina. And then we’ll beat or almost beat Buffalo

  3. Should beat Seattle, SF, Miami, Carolina, Minn, that said, we lose one of those-4-1

    I think we will finish 3-3 in the division so that will include wins against Philly(1) and Dallas(1).

    That Leaves:
    Buffalo-Losing to Cincy made me reconsider this game, I think we pull it out. W
    Jets-Against our D, in Nov in DC, I think we win this game. If we run the ball, stop there run, play solid D and Grossman is smart, we win this one too. W
    Patriots-In DC, this sucks. But I think the Patriots win this. L

    So that puts us at: 11-5

    No way we finish at 11-5, but have a chance. But 9-7 is a more logical number.

    How badass to go into philly, last game of the year, there team out of playoff contention for weeks, fans all pissed off, totally unmotivated QB and team, and us competing for a playoff spot.

  4. Way to early for this. I’m more interested to see if they’ve closed the gap in the division. Are they going to be competitive the second time they face Dallas, New York & Philly? Or are they going to get raped like they usually do? 59-28; 31-7; 45-12; 17-0.

    The bar should still be set pretty low.

  5. Truth is….even with wins this is a rebuilding year. Getting the OL, RBs and Receivers in line for a rookie next year is going to happen one day or another. Maybe if Rexy or Bexy finish strong, a rookie would sit for 2012. But the roster is being built around D and running….which is what you do for a rookie QB.

    I don’t want to be a joykill. But I said 8-8 before week 1….and am sticking to it. Would be thrilled to be wrong if they win more. “Fight On”

  6. I think your 9-7 is fair, but at this point that would mean closing out 6-6 and i just feel that shanny has this team believing. that said, i think they win more games than lose the rest of the way out, which means 10-6 or 11-5….could you imagine…

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