History Says the O’s Will Win 80 in 2011

There was a time when this year’s Orioles were so bad that I actually researched next year’s No. 1 pick. But then they hired Buck Showalter and suddenly everything has changed.

Baltimore, which was 32-73 under Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel, is 31-22 since Showalter took over. Maybe it’s because the rotation turned things around (Brian Matusz’ August-September ERA is 2.25, Brad Bergesen’s is 2.78, Jeremy Guthrie’s is 3.51, Kevin Millwood’s is 3.66 and Jake Arrieta’s was 3.78). Maybe it’s because Brian Roberts returned from injury. Maybe it’s because Showalter has a rabbit foot up his ass. Who knows.

And, really, who cares? The 2010 O’s are still going to lose 90-something games. What’s interesting, though, is what their hot finish means for 2011.

So, since I am not cool, at all, I found every 21st century team that has lost 90 or more games despite posting a .500-or-better record in August, September and October. The results are kind of fascinating:

On average, a really bad team that finishes quite well improves by 15.3 games the following season. That’s a lot.

For the Orioles, that would mean winning ~80 games next season, or more than they’ve won in any season since 1997. I’d like that.

3 thoughts on “History Says the O’s Will Win 80 in 2011”

  1. I wasn’t a big advocate of the Showalter hire.

    In related news, I don’t know shit.

    I honestly though this year they’d compete in the East. Obviously, that was incorrect but it’s nice to see them finish strong for once. Too much youth on this team to accept a losing atmosphere. Hopefully they can sign a 1st baseman, some pitching depth and the youngsters will continue to progress next year. Still not sure they can win 80 next year because of the strength of the East (Toronto is going to compete next year), but one can hope…

  2. HEY HATS OFF TO SHOWWALTER HE GOT THE PLAYERS TO PLAY THE WAY THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD NOW FOR NEXT YEAR MR. SHOWALTER WHEN YOU IN THE BIG MANS OFFICE SHOW HIM WHAT ELSE TO NEED TO COMPETE WITH THE REST OF THE EAST TEAMS IF HE ASKS YOU SHOULD GIVE HES SHOWN US SO FAR HEY LETS GO KICK SOME TEAMS ASS OUT THERE

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